The NBA Draft Lottery: A Night of Fate for the League’s Worst Teams

Aaaaaaah, the NBA Draft Lottery—that much-anticipated moment for the league’s worst franchises to find out whether their season was a complete nightmare until the very end. On the night of May 12–13, we will find out which team will have the honor of selecting first in the upcoming NBA Draft… A night that seems insignificant but is much more important than it appears.

What is the Lottery?

It’s a lottery, but in English (Thank you, Captain Obvious).

No, more seriously. The NBA Draft Lottery is the moment when all the franchises learn their fate and discover which position they will be able to select their future stars in the draft. It is a crucial night for all the teams that have endured a difficult regular season. The future of their franchise can change in an instant, transitioning from a true ordeal to a bright future. Indeed, the team that holds the first pick will have the honor, but above all, the great responsibility of choosing first in the draft and thus selecting the best player of the 2025 class.

But beware, having the first pick is not synonymous with success. It is not uncommon to see a number one draft pick completely fail due to pressure, injuries, or expectations, sinking what was initially an ambitious project. Obtaining the first pick is therefore a victory at first, but watch out for the backlash… We’re not naming names, but there are two or three franchises that are excellent at making the WORST possible choices for the first pick… cough… cough… Portland… cough… cough.

How Does the NBA Draft Lottery Work?

Hold on tight, because this is going to be intense. Even my brain is smoking just thinking about explaining it to you. I promise, we’ll try to keep it simple.

Every year, franchises play 82 regular season (RS) games. At the end of these 82 games, the 14 teams with the worst records in the league gather for the NBA Draft Lottery to compete for the first pick of the future draft. However, the chances of getting it are not the same for every franchise. This is decided based on their records. Among the 14 worst teams, the 3 worst each have a 14% chance of winning the first pick, which represents 140 possible combinations. This year, the Utah Jazz, the Washington Wizards, and the Charlotte Hornets have the highest chances of choosing first in the next draft. These franchises also have the same percentage chance of obtaining the second and third picks (in case they don’t get the first).

The logic then follows: the 4th-worst record has a 12.5% chance of getting the first pick, the 5th-worst has 10.5%, and so on.

But you know how probabilities work. These are only percentages. It is therefore possible for a team with a much better record than the 3 worst to get the first pick. Case in point: our Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher, the 2024 first pick, was selected by the Atlanta Hawks even though the Georgians only had a 3% chance of getting it with their 10th-worst regular season finish! That said, it is still quite rare to see the first pick go to a team other than those comprising the “trio of shame.”

How Does This Famous Evening Unfold? 🤔

Well, it’s quite simple. Mark Tatum, the NBA’s Deputy Commissioner, conducts the draw. In a machine worthy of the EuroMillions, the 14 numbered ping-pong balls (from 1 to 14) are mixed for 20 seconds, and four of them are drawn, forming a combination. The team with the winning combination is awarded the first pick… Nothing too complicated.

But where Americans excel is that they always find a way to put on a show, no matter the event. To spice up the lottery and increase the pressure, the NBA invites a representative from each of the 4 worst franchises competing for the first place so they can experience the joy of getting the first pick live, or the distress of having tanked for nothing… This often leads to amusing scenes, but also moments of extreme excitement, as in 2023 when San Antonio Spurs fans, upon the announcement of receiving the 1st pick, realized that Victor Wembanyama was going to join them.

Two Small Facts to Know 💭

In NBA history, only 6 teams have never known the joy of getting the first pick in a draft:

• Memphis Grizzlies
• Miami Heat
• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Utah Jazz
• Denver Nuggets
• Indiana Pacers

In the jargon, they are called “Black Cats” 🐈‍⬛.

The steal of the century was achieved by the Orlando Magic in 1993. In the NBA Draft Lottery, the Magic only had a 1.5% chance of getting the first pick… And they got it, drafting Chris Webber, who later became one of the greatest legends of the Florida franchise… Just kidding, he never wore the Magic’s colors as he was immediately traded to the Warriors. Quite a funny twist. Nevertheless, it remains, to this day, the biggest stroke of luck in the history of the lottery, just ahead of the 2008 Bulls (1.70% $\rightarrow$ Derrick Rose, a pretty good haul) and the 2014 Cleveland Cavaliers (1.70% $\rightarrow$ Andrew Wiggins).